Thursday, June 18, 2009

Rain Delay Thursday

I've been patiently awaiting the start of the US Open since the Masters in April. I got up at 10, turned on ESPN for the start of their live coverage, and was only allowed to suffer for 20 minutes of Chris Berman announcing golf before Mother Nature decided that listening to Boomer call yet another sporting event was 'cruel and unusual punishment'.

Anyways there is baseball to be played so lets take a look at some of the highlights that could be...

I am obligated to start with the first game of the day...Braves v. Reds, which features Tommy Hanson's 3rd career start pitching against Matt Maloney who is also making his 3rd career big league start. Hanson's second start was better than his first (which was a 7 run (6 earned) which feaured 3 home runs against the BrewCrew, to be fair he had a perfect first 3 innings. Maloney on the other hand was the victim of bad luck in his second start, when his Reds were rendered importent against former #1 overall pick Luke Hochevar who needed just 80 pitches to complete the game. Hanson has the stuff of an ace while Maloney, called up to fill in for the injured Edinson Volquez, has solid AAA numbers this season..4-3 2.00 ERA 67.1 IP 58 K's 9 BB's with a 1.03 WHIP. Should be a good game between two good young pitchers.

There is a good duel going on in Minnesota today, with the Pirates Zach Duke (7-4) faces off against Nick Blackburn(5-2) and the Twins. Duke is 10th is ERA+ (132) and is putting together a decent year, even though he doesnt strike out many batters (4.5/9 innings), he doesnt walk many (2.032/9 innings which is 5th in the NL) and he is more a ground ball pitcher than a flyball pitcher. Blackurn has also put up a very nice start to the season with a 3.31 ERA (125 ERA+) and is essentially a very similar pitcher to Duke. He doesnt strike out many, only 3.9/9 innings, but he walks only a handful (2.6/9 innings). He was 5th in the AL last year in walks allowed per 9 innings. Should be a good control pitchers duel.

The last game the has my interest in terms of pitching duels is a late game, Dodgers v. Athletics. This features the surprising Vin Mazzaro and Randy Wolf. Mazzaro started his MLB career with 17 2/3 scoreless innings, and after 3 starts has given up only 3 runs in 19 2/3 innings, while striling out 9 and walking 5. His whip is .966 and his ERA+ is a whopping 301. It might have something to do with that 96 mph 2-seamer he has. Randy Wolf has not put up the same numbers as Mazzaro, but he certainly has not disapointed in LA this season, going 3-2 with a 3.41 ERA while stiking out 6.8/9 and walking only 2.5/9. Should be another fun pitches duel at a nice little pitchers park out in LA.

Other games to keep an eye on...

The Red Sox go for a sweep by sending Jon Lester to the mound to face the dissapointing Ricky Nolasco.

North Side v. South Side at 2:20 ET when the Pale Hose send Gavin Floyd to the mound to face off against Carlos Zambrano and the Cubbies.

The two streaking teams of each league as the Rays send Matt Garza to the mound to face off against Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies out at Coors Field.

Enjoy!

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

MOTN!

I guess I will post a few things tonight. No big deal, just some more Interleague Play.

White Sox 4- Cubs 1. This was one of two afternoon games today. Alexi Ramirez hit a high and outside fastball from Dempster into the catch net in left field to start the scoring in the top of the first and the White Sox never looked back. The story of the the game was John Danks, who threw 7 innings giving up 1 run on 5 hits with no walks and 9 k's...Maybe he is turning his season around. In his last two starts against Detroit and today against the Cubs, he has thrown 14.1 innings while giving up 3 runs on 10 hits, 2 walks, while striking out 16. Ozzie can't be mad about that.

Meanwhile on the Left Coast Tim Lincecum (8ip 3er 9k's 8h 0bb) and his Giants faced off against the Los Angeles Angels of Aneheim. The Angels won 4-3 thanks to a 3-run 8th innings by the Angels that was capped off by a ground out by Juan Rivera to drive in Chone Figgins.

On to the rest of the story...

The Royals send Zack Greinke to the mound tonight in a battle of young pitchers to face the Arizona Diamondbacks who are starting Max Scherzer. No need to write about what Greinke has done this season, but Scherzer on the other hand is quietly putting up a solid year, which his 3-4 record does not reflect (yet another reason why W-L is not the way to guage a pitcher's performance throughout the season). He has put up a 3.63 ERA in 67 innings while striking out 69 and walking 28. In case you have not been keeping score, the Royals are 47-32 (.595 win%) in Interleague Play since 2005, but only 244-388 (.386 win%). How unlikely are those numbers? According to Rany Jazayerli http://www.ranyontheroyals.com/2009/06/are-royals-in-wrong-league.html it is about 1 in 7000.

Enough about that, what else is going on!

If the Nationals are actually going to win a game against the Yankees it will be tonight, when John Lannan faces off against Chien-Ming Wang (he of the 14.34 ERA). Remember, the Nationals are 5th in OPS in the National League (4th in OPS+) and with their best pitcher on the mound tonight, could pull off a win at Yankee Stadium. I mean, if Wang struggles and leaves meatballs for Adam Dunn to pull into the short porch in Right Field, it is going to be a long night.

In keeping up with pitchers to keep an eye on here are a few more...

Edwin Jackson is pitching against the Cardinals tonight. In his last 5 starts he is 3-1 with a 1.98 era with 24 K's and 12 BB's in 35.1 innings pitched. These are not far from his season totals (6-3 2.24 ERA 88.1 innings pitched 65 K's 23 BB's). Verlander showed his human side last night, will Jackson do the same tonight?

There really are not many exciting games tonight. Marlins v. Red Sox is fun considering it is the 500th consecutive sellout at Fenway Park. Want to know something crazy? It was 49 years ago today that Ted Williams hit his 500th Home Run. Unfortunately that did not take place at Fenway, but in the now defunct Cleveland Stadium. He was the fourth player to reach this milestone mark after Babe Ruth, Jimmie Foxx, and Mel Ott.

Cahill v. Kuroda is actually a decent matchup with Cahill having not given up more than 3 runs in his last 5 outings, lasting at least 6 inning is 4 of those 5 starts. Hiroki Kuroda is a shutdown starter at Dodgers Stadium with a 6-3 record in 16 starts with a 3.45 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Time for the games!

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Thought So...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/sports/baseball/17doping.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

My only question is when are the rest of the names going to be released? Clearly someone has access to this list and all the names. Most people following baseball had a hunch this was the truth, but at the end of the day it doesnt really matter. Everyone did (does) steroids. It was legal, now it is not.

I believe there should be blood testing in MLB. Let's face it, if you can't play the game clean, there are plenty of guys out there willing to.

Monday, June 15, 2009

Matchups Of The Night!

Another edition of MOTN!

2 games...

Indians-Brewers (Pavano v. Bush)

Angels-Giants (Lackey v. Zito)

I think the most interesting of the 2 is that last game. For those of you not paying attention, if the season ended right now, the San Francisco Giants would be the NL Wild Card team. They have the best pitching in the NL and I cant think of an under the radar team I would not want to meet in a 5-game set. Name a better 1-2 combo in the Majors right now not named Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and I will quit watching baseball for the rest of my life.

Ok, since you cannot do that, I get to keep watching our Nation's past time! Webb-Haren is only 1/2 of what it was. Sabathia-Burnett? No way. Beckett-Lester? Ok, close.

Enjoy the Games!

A most interesting Question

From The Book Blog by Tom Tango this morning a non insanely statistical question was posed...

Q1: Today is Jun 15, 2009. The following pitchers have all been declared free agents (yes, in the middle of the season), and you are lucky enough to have the most money available to sign one of these pitchers. You are going to give them a 6-year contract. How much would you give each one?
Cole Hamels (b. 1983) Jair Jurrjens (b. 1986) Stephen Strasburg (b. 1988) Justin Verlander (b. 1983) Chien-Ming Wang (b. 1980)

Q2: Same question, but today is Jun 15, 2008, and you have no knowledge of what has happened in the year that follows.

To answer this fun question we need to break down each of the pitchers before and after said dates...

Let's start with Question 1. It is obvious, to me at least, that Wang is dead last. I would probably sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal, not the 6 in the question,even though he has two 19 win seasons, ever since breaking his foot last year he has not been the same pitcher, and frankly the other 4 have been pitching and pitching well. If I had to offer him a 6-year contract it would be for no more than a base of $4 or $5 million a year($30 million total, which might be a little bit high) with plenty of incentives, which he very well could reach.

I think the most difficult decision is what to do with Strasburg. Most of me says slot him 5th, and give him a contract fitting of someone who has never played professional baseball. Oh wait, I remember now, STEVEN STRASBURG HAS NEVER PITCHED ONE PROFESSIONAL INNING. I think a lot of writers forget that when talking about him. He is 21 years old and is coming off maybe the best college pitching year in history. Mark Prior was of similar age and of similar stature when he was drafted by the Cubs. How did that work out? This notion that he is a 'sure-thing' and that "the risk factors are zero" according to his agent, Scott Boras, are lies. I think Boras is the best agent in the game and that he has to say this on behalf of his client, but I do not believe for one second that if forced to answer truthfully that he would stake his entire reputation on Strasburg being the second coming of Jesus Christ himself. I also believe those (Clay Davenport) who claim that if he pitched for Washington this year he would have a 3.54 ERA, strike out 9.3/9-innings, and be a top 10 pitcher in the National League. That may be the biggest load of projection garbage I have read this year (Another Baseball Prospectus projection, of Matt Wieters being the 5th most valuable player in MLB this year, with a line of .311/.395/.544 is a close second, but at least there are professional baseball numbers to back that up). Ok, so after all that I will admit that Strasburg looks amazing, and I would certainly sign him to a 6-year $35 million deal.

Ok so onto the last 3...

Jair Jurrjens is definitely the 3rd best pitcher on this list, as of now. His ERA+ this season is 147, good for 9th in the National League, and I think he is a solid 2 starter, based on his K/BB ratio along with K/9, which is the best predictor of success. I would say 6-years for $60 million would be a reasonable number for a 23 year old with Major League success. It might even be low balling it a little bit considering he is a top 15 guy in the National League.

Justin Verlander has the best pure stuff of anyone on this list. I would say that when he is on his game he is one of the most intimidating pitchers to face in the big leagues, and he has a no-no to his name. That being said he had an awful year last year thanks to a big drop in his velocity, but has rebounded this year to put up a 1.10 ERA in his last 9 starts in which he has gone 7-0. Not too shabby. Lets look at Hamels v. Verlander since they are the same age.

Age 23 Verlander (2006)- 17-9 186 ip 1.328 WHIP 126 ERA+ 2.07 K/BB ratio
Age 23 Hamels(2007)- 15-5 183.1 ip 1.124 WHIP 136 ERA+ 4.12 K/BB ratio

Age 24 Verlander(2007)- 18-6 201.2 ip 1.230 WHIP 125 ERA+ 2.73 K/BB ratio
Age 24 Hamels (2008)- 14-10 227.1 ip 1.082 WHIP (Led NL) 142 ERA+ 3.70 K/BB ratio.

Verlander's Age 25 (2008) season looked like this, just for some perspective- 11-17 201 ip 1.403 WHIP 92 ERA+ 1.87 K/BB
Hamels Age 25 season(2009) looks similar thus far...4-2 62.1 ip 1.380 WHIP 94 ERA+ 4.67 K/BB ratio

That is why Verlander is 2nd...he is good, but not Hamels good. 6-year $80-$90 million

My 1st choice would be Cole Hamels. Ok, so other than the Jurrjens v. Strasburg debate which I think is a very interesting question, the Hamels v. Verlander debate is just as exciting. Hamels is an ace. There is a difference between a #1 starter and an ace, and that difference is a #1 starter is a good, solid guy who you count on every 5th game to give his all and put your team in position to win. An ace is a guy who you count on to do that AND count on to stop losing streaks and give a boost to your team. For an example of this, Matt Cain has the stuff of a #1 starter, but Tim Lincecum has the stuff of an ace. Hamels is an ace, but he threw 262 1/3 innings last year, by far the most he has ever thrown in a season. His arm has been showing the effects, he has been giving up 10.7 hits/9 innings compared to 7.6 in 2008 and 8.0 in 2007. However, his K/BB ratio has never been better and he pitched an amazing 35 innings last post season, something no one else on this list has done. He has bested Verlander every single year except for this current one(2009) in ERA+, and really only trails in strikeouts to Verlander. 6-years $100 million is a number he will get in the future and I would have no problem giving him that right now.

Bryce Harper Goes to College

Yeah, no kidding.

This was hinted in the Sports Illustrated Cover Article that Mr. Harper, now the morning line favorite to be drafter #1 overall in the 2010 MLB draft, would get his GED and enter community college in order for him to be drafted sooner than 2011. Well this morning it has been reported in a few places, http://www.lvrj.com/sports/48018907.html, that he will be enrolling at the College of Southern Nevada for the upcoming year.

I honestly do not have a problem with this. He is an extremely talented individual who, at 16, is ready for more competitive baseball than what the High School level can provide him with.

Lets look at the facts. He is a 6 foot 3 inch CATCHER who hit .626 in his SOPHOMORE YEAR of High School, while hitting 14 home runs and stealing 36 bases. According to the legend of Bryce Harper, he has also hit a ball 570 feet IN THE AIR, though most people point to the 450 foot bomb he hit at a High School home run derby at Tropicana Field.

Matt Wieters who? Ok, so that is a stretch, and this kid might not pan out, but you have to admit, it is pretty exciting that someone who they say is more developed than A-Rod at the age of 16 is going to be playing pro ball in a year or so (if he decides to sign, which he should, because he is going to get more money than any 17 year old should be allowed to handle).

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Out in Omaha

Alex White, the 15th overall selection in the 2009 MLB draft went 9 strong for his UNC Tar Heels giving up one run while striking out 12. It was all for nothing though as in the top of the 10th, Arizona State scored 4 runs, most off a 3-run opposite field shot by Kole Calhoun. The Sun Devils were helped out by UNC right fielder Garrett Gore dropping a fly ball with a man on first and 1 out. ASU held on to win 5-2.

ASU will play the winner of tonights game between #1 Texas and the suprise of the tournament thus far, Southern Miss. UNC will play the loser in an elimination game.

Tomorrow's action out of Omaha will see LSU play Arkansas and Virginia play Cal State Fullerton, which is the elimination game.